Sri Lanka’s Severe-Drought! Is EL-Niño Settling In?

It has been reported by many market analysts that within the forthcoming months, even cooler winter weather will settle on the western hemisphere, and there will be a considerable rise in food prices throughout the world. This is primarily due to severe drought (lack of rain) taking place within the regions of the world where much of the food production takes place. Added to this, the Ukraine Russia war where Russia has refused to accept Ukraine green exportation agreement citing western nations are exporting weapons and arsenal to Ukrainian under the disguise of grain exports.

This is August of 2023, what is Sri Lanka is going through due to the lack of sufficient rainfall is no exception. Over the past couple of months, headlines of the country consisting of news relating to the lack of rainfall has been very frequent and it has affected just about every aspect of Sri Lankan society, and it is about to get even worse if at least a certain amount of sufficient rainfall isn’t received for Sri Lanka’s major reservoirs to supply the main regions of agriculture.

While all the major grain producing-exporting nations have completely halted their grain exports due to the lack of rain that has made it impossible for these major grain manufacturing nations to produce a surplus of grain that would be sufficient for export.

In fact, food security experts had advised governments throughout the world, to stockpile an adequate amount of food to be used in the immediate future that should be sufficient for a period of 4 to 6 months (till December of 2023). And many western governments to Asian nations have followed through and completely halted their food and grain exportation to safeguard feeding their own people.

It also had been reported and projected by many researchers and scientists within meteorological field in the United States and Australia that there is a development of an El Niño weather phenomenon taking place this year. Even though this has not been fully confirmed or acknowledged.

Within Sri Lanka after it’s devastating economic collapse, took place in late 2022, despite suffering severe economic difficulties-hardships, the average Sri Lankan middle class citizens had the assurance that there is a sufficient amount of food available even at considerably higher prices despite poorer people having difficulty purchasing them and that Sri Lankans need not worry of lack of everyday food items.

Despite an outright ban on importation and usage of fertilizer by the previous government within the agriculture industry, as a political as well as a radical environmentally friendly phony strategy. Sri Lankan famers managed to produce a surplus of agriculture produce that would be more than sufficient to feed the nation even during the absence of vital fertilizer.

But in the present-day context of August of 2023, a severe drought has taken its toll on almost all major agriculture cultivation areas within Sri Lanka as well as on other aspect of the Sri Lankan economy and society that has made use of freshwater a vital component. Simply put, from drinking water to water for feeding animals in wildlife parks, and water required to harvest, hydroelectric generation has made the use of freshwater a considerable strain due to insufficient rainfall being received.

A simple sign of this crisis is the government decision to increase the tariffs placed on water provided through Sri Lankan National Water Supply and Drainage Board from August of 2023 onwards. Despite government’s justification of this move with every sort of argument, and due to this subsequent increase just about every commodity to product increase and will make use pipe borne water prices eventually elevated.

One prominent Sri Lankan politician member of parliament, Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka, has raised awareness that the government should be concerned, regarding this situation the country likely to go through, if the expected the North-East monsoon rain isn’t received as expected. “We will be facing a situation similar to what took place back in 2009 -2012 with El Niño weather condition”. He further clarified that in recent past years of 2009 to 2010 there was an actual El Niño whether condition that took place and as a result rainfall for the years of 2010 to 2011 through the South Western monsoon was severely hampered. It lasted for almost one and half years and the country went through severe drought. It gradually subsided at the end of 2012.

Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka further explained that during this time period, the agriculture sector of the North Eastern regions of Sri Lanka had gone through extreme difficulties, and also many of the hydroelectric generating power plants had so many difficulties operating and weren’t able to generate adequate amount of power to provide the national power grid. And most severely, it threatened to hamper the supply of fresh drinking water to the people from the North Central to the North Eastern provinces of Sri Lanka. This condition reappeared in the year of 2014 to 2015 but did not cause the same kind of an impact as it did during the years 2009 and 2012.

On the topic of hydroelectric power generation Minister stated “despite the electricity bills being increased 300%, the Sri Lankan Electricity Board lacks the capability to generate adequate power to the nation, if hydroelectric power generating plants haven’t received adequate rainfall. It is not acceptable for the Ceylon Electricity Board to make the public statement stating that “they are not able to provide sufficient electricity due to the lack of rainfall not being received”.

Because back in the years of 2009 to 2012, and periods of 2014 to 2015 when the country went through severe drought that was far worse than what presently the country is going through 2023, the Ceylon Electricity Board has managed to provide electricity for the nation at a reasonable-affordable price. Despite hydroelectric power generation that depends on possessing adequate reserves of water gained through sufficient rainfall, it is not excusable compared with how the Ceylon Electricity Board has dealt with the crisis during 2009 – 2012.

Situation the country presently is going through is a national crisis and “there is critical role to be played by the Ministry of Disaster Management and by the Centre for Disaster Management” he added. Thus, so far very little non-proactive work has been done to mitigate the rising situation regarding the drought the country is currently facing.

The Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka further added that, due to the Ministry of Disaster Management being headed under the Defense Ministry, for whatever reason the acting committees hasn’t been convened for the past couple of years. Actually, it hasn’t been convened since the Covid-19 crisis. This is totally unacceptable because they have been notified about the looming crisis of drought taking place within the country and also, they have been warned of a possible settling in of El Niño weather condition throughout the island from November to December.

In fact, the Defense Ministry has been officially notified by parliamentary subcommittee about the pending crisis due to severe drought taking place throughout the country’s and to  prepare a suitable Action Plan that everyone can adhere to avert its serious complications. “But so far very little actual work has been done despite holding usual media press conferences assuring the Sri Lankan public that the ministry is well aware of the situation taking place and it is well under control and that the public need not to concerned about it”.

Fortunately for the country there is still ample amount of time remaining to prepare if the El Nino condition were to settles in by November December months of 2023. With previous experiences gained and with what country had gone through, we can overcome the difficulties with the correct strategy. But so far, no action plan nor anything concrete has been put in place.