Asaduzzaman Shamrat: Bangladesh stands at a crucial crossroads, facing an intricate and urgent challenge where climate change, food security, and rural livelihoods collide. Agriculture has long been the backbone of the country’s economy and the largest single source of employment. Yet today, it confronts threats of an unprecedented scale. Climate change is no longer a distant forecast or abstract worry. It is an immediate reality, reshaping fields, harvests, and the futures of millions of farmers whose lives and livelihoods depend on the land. What is at stake is not just the supply of rice—the staple food for over 170 million people—but the very resilience of a rural economy that depends on stable and predictable agricultural output.
Recent production figures reveal the severity of this challenge. Over the last three years, paddy production in Bangladesh has seen a continuous decline. It fell from 62.5 million tonnes in 2022/23 to an estimated 58.5 million tonnes in 2024/25. Meanwhile, the average yield per hectare has dropped from 5.29 tonnes to 4.94 tonnes during the same period. At first glance, this decline might appear modest. However, for a nation that has spent decades striving to achieve near self-sufficiency in rice production, a loss of nearly four million tonnes in such a short span signals a warning that cannot be ignored. The shrinking yields reflect the mounting pressure on farmers who already operate on razor-thin margins, attempting to sustain productivity amid harsher and less predictable conditions.
This downward trend is not due to a single bad spell or isolated event. Rather, it captures the cumulative effect of multiple, intertwined climate stresses that threaten Bangladesh’s agriculture. Erratic rainfall patterns—some regions face extended droughts while others are ravaged by sudden floods—have disrupted planting and harvesting cycles. Coastal districts such as Khulna, Satkhira, and Barisal are increasingly plagued by salinity intrusion, forcing farmers to abandon what were once fertile lands. Further north, relentless riverbank erosion displaces entire farming families, stripping them not only of their fields but also of their homes and stability. These pressures compound, creating an alarming scenario for both food production and rural livelihoods.
Agriculture in Bangladesh is not simply an economic sector; it is a lifeline that sustains nearly 40 percent of the labor force and supports over half of the rural population. When yields fall, the impact cascades well beyond the fields. Incomes shrink, rural demand declines, and food prices rise. For poor households, where more than half of their income is spent on food, these dynamics translate into a harsh reality: food insecurity becomes a direct threat to survival. Women and landless laborers, already vulnerable, bear the brunt of this crisis as their access to employment and nourishment becomes increasingly precarious.
Recognizing these daunting challenges, the government of Bangladesh has taken substantial steps toward fostering a climate-resilient agricultural system. The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) serves as a broad framework integrating climate adaptation into the country’s development goals. Research institutions such as the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute have made vital contributions by developing stress-tolerant rice varieties—such as BRRI dhan67, which withstands submergence, and BRRI dhan61, designed to tolerate salinity. These advances provide crucial tools for combating climate-related risks, yet their adoption across the farming population remains uneven and needs to be significantly scaled up to meet the scope of the problem.